Following months of tortuous negotiations, U-turns, and diplomatic friction, Australia and Vanuatu are on the brink of signing the Nakamal agreement—a historic strategic, economic, and security pact set to redraw the balance of power in the Pacific. Vanuatu Prime Minister Jotham Napat is scheduled to lead a delegation to Canberra this weekend, ahead of an expected signing next week.
The Nakamal agreement faced months of delays fueled by sensitivities surrounding sovereignty, security, and critical infrastructure. Vanuatu’s Council of Ministers approved a revised version of the text in May, which Australia has now endorsed, clearing the path for the signing after a final review pushed back the initial ceremony.
Under the original Nakamal pact initialized at the Mount Yasur summit, Australia was to invest approximately AUD 500 million in Vanuatu over a decade, funding core priorities in development, security, and climate resilience. The dramatic ceremony atop the volcano—attended by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, and Pacific Minister Pat Conroy—marked the initialing of the text in August 2025. However, Prime Minister Napat subsequently backtracked on signing, citing clauses that he argued compromised his nation’s sovereignty.
The geopolitical stakes could not be higher. China is actively pursuing its own negotiations with Port Vila through the Namele agreement, which Prime Minister Napat has described as a “strategic partnership agreement” on par with the Nakamal deal. Beijing is seeking to establish itself as a pivotal security partner in the region—a prospect both Canberra and Washington have dreaded since the signing of the Sino-Solomons security pact in 2022.
Meanwhile, Australia remains open to the concept of a Pacific-wide security treaty, an initiative proposed by Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale during a recent bilateral meeting with Anthony Albanese. Pacific Minister Pat Conroy reaffirmed that Australia is locked in a “permanent competition in the Pacific” against China and other external powers vying to expand their footprint in the region.
Among the aspirations voiced by the Vanuatu public are visa-free access to Australia and reinstatement into the Australian Pacific Engagement Visa program, from which the country was controversially removed just prior to the planned signing. For the French community in Australia, which retains strong ties to Vanuatu’s shared Franco-British history as the former New Hebrides, this agreement represents a turning point in the shifting alliances of a region more strategically contested than ever.
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